That didn’t occur. Polls discovered the general public roughly divided over whether or not this system ought to be prolonged, with opinions splitting alongside partisan and generational strains. And the expanded tax credit score didn’t win over the person whose opinion mattered most: Senator Joe Manchin III, Democrat of West Virginia, who cited concerns over the cost and structure of the program in his determination to oppose Mr. Biden’s local weather, tax and social coverage invoice. The invoice, often called the Construct Again Higher Act, can not proceed within the evenly divided Senate with out Mr. Manchin’s help.

To supporters of the kid profit, the failure to increase it’s particularly irritating as a result of, in accordance with most analyses, this system itself has been a outstanding success. Researchers at Columbia College estimate that the funds kept 3.8 million children out of poverty in November, an almost 30 p.c discount within the youngster poverty price. Different research have discovered that the profit reduced hunger, lowered financial stress amongst recipients and elevated total shopper spending, particularly in rural states that obtained probably the most cash per capita.

Congress final spring expanded the present youngster tax credit score in 3 ways. First, it made the profit extra beneficiant, offering as a lot as $3,600 per youngster, up from $2,000. Second, it started paying the credit score in month-to-month installments, normally deposited instantly into recipients’ financial institution accounts, turning the once-yearly windfall into one thing nearer to the youngsters’s allowances frequent in Europe.

Lastly, the invoice made the total profit accessible to hundreds of thousands who had beforehand been unable to take full benefit of the credit score as a result of they earned too little to qualify. Poverty consultants say that change, recognized in tax jargon as “full refundability,” was notably important as a result of with out it, a third of children — together with half of all Black and Hispanic kids, and 70 p.c of kids being raised by single moms — didn’t obtain the total credit score. Mr. Biden’s plan would have made that provision everlasting.

“What we’ve seen with the kid tax credit score is a coverage success story that was unfolding, however it’s successful story that we danger stoping in its tracks simply because it was getting began,” mentioned Megan Curran, director of coverage at Columbia’s Middle on Poverty and Social Coverage. “The burden of the proof is evident right here when it comes to what the coverage is doing. It’s lowering youngster poverty and meals insufficiency.”

However the expanded tax credit score doesn’t simply go to the poor. {Couples} incomes as a lot as $150,000 a yr may obtain the total $3,600 profit — $3,000 for kids 6 and older — and even wealthier households qualify for the unique $2,000 credit score. Critics of the coverage, together with Mr. Manchin, have argued that it makes little sense to supply assist to comparatively well-off households. Many supporters of the credit score say they’d fortunately restrict its availability to wealthier households in return for sustaining it for poorer ones.

Mr. Manchin has additionally publicly questioned the knowledge of unconditional money funds, and has privately voiced issues that recipients may spend the cash on opioids, feedback that had been first reported by The Wall Street Journal and confirmed by an individual acquainted with the dialogue. However a survey performed by the Census Bureau discovered that almost all recipients used the cash to purchase meals, clothes or different requirements, and plenty of saved among the cash or paid down debt. Different surveys have discovered related outcomes.